In the wake of the draw with Wolverhampton Wanderers on the weekend we were all awaiting to hear news on the extent of Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin's injuries (and maybe Krafth a tiny bit too). It was announced by NUFC on Tuesday morning that they were both out until April with Krafth returning to training later this week but the question on all of our lips is, how will Newcastle cope without our first choice front three? (with Wilson also injured until April). In our next 3 games we face West Brom, Aston Villa and Brighton with ASM, Wilson and Miggy absent . Newcastle must see at least 2 of these as must-win games but how do Steve Bruce and his coaching staff approach these games without their key attacking players? There are many options in terms of personnel, formation and play style, some of which I will explore in this article.
1.Stick with the formation
With Newcastle's current formation working reasonably well since its installation, would Newcastle see a reason to change their shape? The formation has helped Newcastle pick up 7 points in their last 6 games with 2 of 3 defeats to high quality opponents and could have defeated Wolves if not for bad communication. With our next 3 games against what could be seen as lower-quality opposition Newcastle may see no reason to change their shape. However, they would evidently be forced to change personnel. My prediction of what Bruce may go with can be seen below:
With the defence and midfield being unchanged recently, I do not see any changes being made there unless Manquillo is deemed fitter than Krafth. Dummett and Fernandez may return over Lewis and Clark but I think Bruce will stick with his defence. Despite Hayden's relatively poor form recently, it is likely he will remain in his combative ball-winning midfield role with little other option. Shelvey will remain on the back of an impressive showing and Willock's creativity and forward runs provide an extra threat going forward. With the front three in this formation, I could see Fraser filling in for Almiron as he did in the 2nd half against Wolves. If Murphy fills the right forward role, this would allow Joelinton to play on his preferred left-hand side and would hopefully bring the best out of him. This would also allow fluidity with Joelinton able to play as a no.10 and Fraser being a more natural wide player. Other options with this formation could see Carroll or Gayle replacing Murphy however this would perhaps lack creativity and a little bit of pace. This formation would however still leave the full backs lacking cover, even more so if Murphy is not present.
2. A return to the 4-2-3-1
This was a formation used by Bruce towards the end of the 19/20 season with memories of West Brom away playing over and over in my head, showing how the formation could be used to benefit our squad. This formation was not retained for long with 5 at the back returning soon after and it is surprising we have not seen this formation utilised this season, considering this would suit our attack quite well. With full-backs lacking cover and our key attackers injures, could we see a return for this formation? If so, this may be what Bruce lines up with:
As mentioned previously, I think Bruce will stick with his defence with the right back the only position up for debate due to injury. This formation would see Shelvey and Hayden partner each other in midfield. This would allow Willock to push further forward and would likely help replace some of the missing goal threat in the absence of Almiron in the no.10 role. Willock would also be capable of dropping slightly deeper and helping out in the midfield, forming a 4-3-3. This formation would allow Murphy and Fraser to play in their natural positions as wingers; hopefully Bruce knows now that playing players in their correct position helps, right? Both Fraser and Murphy are capable crossers of the ball, making sense for Andy Carroll to return to the fold to cause an aerial threat to the opposition and hassle their defence. Other options for this could see Joelinton in any of the front 4 roles as he is often preferred to others or Gayle may feature over Carroll up top, Gayle impressed in this formation last season.
Problems with this set-up could be Shelvey's often criticised lack of work rate in holding midfield. This formation should largely benefit the side though, due to increased cover for the full-backs with conventional wingers being employed. The formation would also help generate a further goal-threat if Newcastle play slightly more direct with more crosses into the box.
3.A return to a back 5
This is likely to be an unpopular option for many fans and would also go against Bruce's 'gloves off' approach however returning to a back five may be an option due to Newcastle's injury problems at right back and the familiarity of the formation to the squad. We may see something like this:
Fernandez would return as the third centre back, if not fit, Hayden could fill in. As for the wing-back positions Ritchie could be preferred over Lewis due to his work-rate and leadership, Murphy is likely to be selected as he fits the wing-back role better than Manquillo and Krafth due to his better crossing ability in addition to their fitness issues. In midfield, if Hayden has to drop into centre back, Willock or Hendrick are likely to fill in, with the Longstaff's out of favour. In the frontline we would likely see Fraser and Joelinton in the wide roles with Carroll or Gayle in the centre, Carroll may be preferred as he has a better ability to hold the ball up. If Joelinton is preferred in the centre or benched, Willock could line up on the left hand side.
Switching to this formation should be a last resort for Bruce as this would likely see us return to playing the defensive football that we all don't want to endure. This would be increasingly detrimental due to the importance of the games coming up as this is not likely to yield many goals in games which we must win.
Of the above options, I believe Bruce is most likely to stick with his current 4-1-2-1-2/4-3-3 system which has performed ok so far. I believe however, that Steve Bruce should alter his team to play the 2nd option, the 4-2-3-1 as this suits our available players best and I believe it would cause opposition teams problems as well as supporting the full backs better. Whichever option Bruce chooses to go with, it is vital he gets it right as we come to the 'crux of the season'. Despite Newcastle lacking their first choice players in the final third, Bruce has no excuses as Newcastle should not have been in their current situation in the first place. The time is nigh Steve Bruce, show us what you have got!
By Harry Dawson
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